The consultant who prepares BOE enrollment projections does not factor in residential expansion, and relies instead on live birth data. This narrow approach may help explain why enrollment projections are consistently inaccurate for grades K-5. The chart below shows that since 2004, LBishop Associates significantly underestimated enrollment every year except two.
While LBishop projections for K-5 are inaccurate, 6-12 projections are more in sync. This is because students who enroll in the RCSD tend to stay through 12 grade — the elementary school and middle school pipeline is a good predictor of high-school enrollment years later.
(Source: BOE Projected and Actual Enrollment)